Armenia 2020: Project Summary and Introduction

Armenia 2020 is a scenario-building exercise that focuses on the identification of alternative development models for the Republic of Armenia until the year 2020 and elaboration of development scenarios for the country.

The motivation for this initiative rose out of the observation that in this age of ever accelerating progress and constant change, people rarely have the time to stop and think about the direction of society and their role in that process. While some individuals may contemplate the newest changes and trends for the next month, and perhaps even the next year, the vast majority do not consider the changes and trends that will emerge in the decades ahead.

The idea of creating scenarios for businesses, corporations and countries has proved to be quite successful. Other countries, such as Japan, Ireland, South African Republic and Russia have successfully undertaken similar scenario planning exercises. The organizers and the participants believe that this project addresses genuine need for a serious study of Armenia's potential.

However, Armenia 2020 project is absolutely unique as it bridges Diaspora and Armenia with an ambition to create development scenarios for the country. The project shall not pursue political goals. The strength of the project is the mix of participants with diverse viewpoints; it aims to bring together committed and accomplished Armenians from Armenia and all over the world.

Armenia 2020 project sets following goals:

- To contribute to Armenia's future development and formulating through collaborative discussion teams

- To create a wider shared view of future possibilities, through public deliberation on potential long-term development models for Armenia

- To create robust decisions in the face of uncertainty - "Scenarios for Armenia 2020"

The project has started in February 2002 and shall be completed by the second half of 2003.

Over the past several months of the project, over 300 people have been engaged in support of the idea and have agreed to join either as a participant, or as an expert and a source of information. The project is still open for the participants, experts, as well as for various local and international organizations willing to contribute to the project.

The following activities have been accomplished through networking within the Republic of Armenia, the Armenian communities in Argentina, Belgium, Canada, France, Great Britain, Russian Federation, and the USA:

1. Interviews have been conducted with representatives of business community, political leaders, government officials, foreign ambassadors and church representatives, who shared their views on:

- The current economic situation in the Republic of Armenia and the mechanisms of change
-Missed opportunities of economic development during the last decade and the reasons why the opportunities were missed
-The major driving forces which will influence the development of Republic of Armenia within the coming 20 years and how they will influence it
- The barriers to the economic growth of the country and the mechanisms of their influence
- The external political challenges faced by Armenia and the activities that should be undertaken to maximally utilize the opportunities
- The most interesting ideas about the future development of the country

2. Comprehensive analysis of the interviews and a brief country report have been prepared to be presented to the project participants and interested parties, and to be used as a source of basic country data.

3. The First Joint Meeting of Participants was convened in Prague, Czech Republic on July 19-21, 2002.

4. The results of the First Joint Meting of Participants have been summarized and analyzed along with recommendations for the future development of the project and topics for further research by qualified experts.

5. Thirteen researches have been conducted by qualified international expert teams; the researches encompassed the wide range of key topics including partnership of the state and private sector, growth of productivity, research of IT sector, corruption, geopolitical situation and challenges, education, emigration, Diaspora, culture, religion and church, and etc. A sociological research has been conducted among 1400 Armenians in Armenia and in Diaspora to identify the predominant attitudes, values and beliefs of the Armenian nation.

6. Preliminary options of the possible scenarios have been elaborated by the Coordination Board members of the Project.

7. The Second Joint Meeting of Participants was convened in Athens, Greece, on May 16-18, 2003.

8. The results of the Second Joint Meeting of Participants - 7 scenario options - have been further discussed and analyzed by the Coordination Board Members; media planning activities have been launched to further elaborate the accumulated materials into final presentation products.

The detailed description of the project methodology, the participants, and the results of the First and the Second Joint Meetings of Participants are described in the sections to follow.

Detailed information about the project is available in three languages: Armenian, English and Russian at the project's web site: www.armenia2020.org. Organizers hope, that the website will become one of the main tools for the participants to communicate and express their views and opinions about the project. Participants are welcome to register and participate in the Forum discussions. The website will be updated regularly, and will contain the most recent information about the project initiatives, researches and planned events.